Weekly

Assembly poll results in the five states — Assam, West Bengal, Tamil Nadu, Puducherry and Kerala — once again spurred hopes of early passage of GST Bill as government may find it easier now to deal with Trinamool Congress and AIADMK in the Rajya Sabha.

West Bengal Chief Minister Mamata Banerjee after winning the assembly elections said, “We have ideological differences with BJP but we will always support on issues that are beneficial to the people. We will support GST.”

GST aims to simplify the current indirect tax regime by bringing all central and state levies (like excise duty, sales tax, octroi, VAT and other countervailing duties) under one single head having uniform tax rate across goods and services (with some exclusions like electricity, alcohol and petroleum products).

“Results of the Assembly Elections in key states, including Tamil Nadu, West Bengal, Assam and Kerala, have strengthened Prime Minister Narendra Modiwho will now be able to speed up economic reforms with help of non-Congress friendly parties like AIADMK and even Trinamool Congress,” Assocham President Sunil Kanoria told PTI.

According to market experts, passage of GST Bill will help several sectors. The benefits of GST are immense in terms of reducing economic distortions, creating a nationwide single tax market, widening of tax base and eliminating cascading of taxes (tax on tax).

On Dalal Street, shares of logistics companies extended gains on Friday on expectations that the state elections will boost chances of the passage of key Goods and Services Tax (GST) Bill. Gati was trading over 6 per cent higher at Rs 132.75 (at 12.04 pm). Allcargo Logistics shares were trading nearly 4 per cent up at the same time.

With Thursday’s Assembly election results, Finance Minister Arun Jaitley also expressed the hope for early passage of GST Bill about which he was “reasonably optimistic”.

According to market experts, GST will benefit companies from logistics sector as well as manufacturing companies.

Chandan Taparia, analyst, Anand Rathi Securities said, “Passage of GST will mainly benefit companies like Gati, VRL Logistics, Allcargo Logistics, Snowman Logistics and companies from manufacturing sector.”

Sudip Bandyopadhyay, chairman and managing director, Inditrade Capital, said, “Companies like ITC, HUL, Container Corporation, Allcargo and Gati will benefit with the passage of GST.”

According to Angel Broking, the GST Bill has been facing hurdles in various sections of the Parliament for quite a while now and its implementation has been long delayed. However, now there is a strong likelihood of the bill getting passed and it would be the next big thing for the Indian economy.

The brokerage house said, “Once enacted, the GST would be positive for the economy and the stock market as a whole and specifically for sectors like logistics, E-commerce, automobile, and FMCG amongst others. The GST will reduce paperwork and enable efficient trade across the country. Stocks like Transport Corporation of India, Bajaj Auto, Hero MotoCorp, Maruti Suzuki India, TVS Motor, Dabur, HUL, Emami and Marico are some of the stocks which will gain with the passage of GST.”

Ten stock ideas for next 15-20 trading sessions from Experts

The BSE Sensex and NSE Nifty gained a percentage point last week on fresh buying mainly in banking sector buoyed by the passage of Bankruptcy Bill by the government in Parliament despite rise in inflation. On Monday (May 16), the 30-share index gained further 164 points to close at 25,653.23 as investors ignored a spurt in wholesale inflation as well as forecast of a monsoon delay and went for value-buying in FMCG and IT stocks. The NSE Nifty ended 45.85 points or 0.59 per cent higher at 7,860.75.

Market experts are bullish on Indian equity markets. Global brokerage major HSBC has upgraded Indian equity markets to ‘neutral’, saying ‘green shoots’ are emerging and has increased its Sensex target for the year to 26,000 from 25,000.

Karthik Rangappa, VP, education services, Zerodha, said, “We continue to maintain a bullish on the market. The earning season is holding up and there are no major negative sentiments with regard to corporate earnings. We expect this sentiment to carry forward over the next few weeks and therefore expect markets to move at least 50 points beyond 8,000. On the downside, we expect the immediate support at 7,750 to hold over the next few trading sessions.”

With the help of technical analysts we collate a list of 10 stocks which you can buy for a period of 15-20 days.

Rohit Gadia, founder and chief executive officer, CapitalVia Global Research

Power Grid: The stock recently gave breakout of the head and shoulder reversal pattern in its intraday chart and is managing to trade above the same, on daily charts the stock has formed multiple bottom around Rs 140-142 which being a 50 percent retracement level of the movement, it has started since last month providing indication of a potential trend reversal. It is consolidating below the resistance mark of Rs 145 and is likely to continue the upside movement with the crossing of the mentioned level, where one may get the target of Rs 152 in the stock, trade with the stop loss of Rs 142.

Tata Chemicals: The stock is in strong uptrend in its daily chart and after short-term correction it seems that the stock is resuming its on-going uptrend. It is consolidating with the positive bias below the resistance mark of Rs 421. It may show upside movement if it crosses Rs 421 and manages to stay above the immediate support of Rs 410. Further it is trading continually above its 50-Day moving average in its daily chart. One may initiate long position in the stock for the target of Rs 435, with the stop loss of Rs 410.

Hindustan Petroleum: Overall trend of stock is bullish and is consolidating near the resistance mark of Rs 843 from last few trading sessions. It is moving above its 200 days moving average with RSI of 53. We expect it to show recovery after crossing the resistance mark, where stock may test Rs 874 with stop loss of Rs 812.

Chandan Taparia, derivatives and technical analyst, equity research, Anand Rathi Financial Services

Apollo Hospital: It made multiple bottom near Rs 1,290 and started to move after the profit-booking decline of last two months. Major trend is positive and recent decline is giving an opportunity to trade the stock for higher targets. The stock can touch Rs 1,420.

Havells India: Moving very strong and momentum may take it towards Rs 385-390. Making higher top–higher bottom and trading at uncharted territory.

Arvind: Made string base and now medium term trend is shifting on bulls side and holding above Rs 300 may take it to Rs 325.

Sun TV: Sun TV shares are available at attractive valuations. They can touch Rs 445 in the next 10-15 days.

Karthik Rangappa, VP, Education Services, Zerodha

Elgi Equipments: The stock is forming a flag formation, which according to the charts is a bullish signal. On could take a punt and go long on the stock especially considering the fact that the results are due on May 27, and there could be a run up in the stock. The stock can touch Rs 161.

Dr Reddy’s Laboratories: The stock has formed a triple bottom at around Rs 2,875 and consolidated at these levels. The stock has been continuously bought at lower levels, giving us a sense that the stock is primed up for a breakout over the next few trading session. One can buy the stock at present level, keeping Rs 2,870 as stop loss for a target price of Rs 2,905.

Federal Bank: Federal Bank is one of the better-managed private sector bank. The stock is trading at a short-term support at Rs 49. Besides, the stock has just crossed over the 100- day moving average. The volumes too are on the higher side. We expect the momentum to continue and the stock to hit Rs 53 over the next few trading session.

Buy the first pullback after a new high. Sell the first rally after a new low.

Afternoon strength or weakness should have follow through the next day.

The best trading reversals occur in the morning, not the afternoon.

The larger the market gaps, the greater the odds of continuation and a trend.

The way the market trades around the previous day’s high or low is a good indicator of the market’s technical strength or weakness. The previous day’s high and low are two very important “pivot” points, for this was the definitive point where buyers or sellers came in the day before. Look for the market to either test and reverse off these points, or push through and show signs of continuation.

The last hour often tells the truth about how strong a trend truly is. “Smart” money shows their hand in the last hour, continuing to mark positions in their favor.

As long as a market is having consecutive strong closes, look for up-trend to continue. The uptrend is most likely to end when there is a morning rally first, followed by a weak close.

High volume on the close implies continuation the next morning in the direction of the last half-hour. In a strongly trending market, look for resumption of the trend in the last hour.

The first hour’s range establishes the framework for the rest of the trading day. A greater percentage of the day’s range occurs in the first hour then was the case in the past, and thus it has become increasingly important to trade aggressively if there are early signs of a strong trend for the day.

There are four basic principles of price behavior which have held up over time. Confidence that a type of price action is a true principle is what allows a trader to develop a systematic approach. The following four principles can be modeled and quantified and hold true for all time frames, all markets. The majority of patterns or systems that have a demonstrable edge are based on one of these four enduring principles of price behavior. Charles Dow was one of the first to touch on them in his writings.

Principle One: A Trend Has a Higher Probability of Continuation than Reversal

Principle Two: Momentum Precedes Price

Principle Three: Trends End in a Climax

Principle Four: The Market Alternates between Range Expansion and Range Contraction!

In the world of money, which is a world shaped by human behavior, nobody has the foggiest notion of what will happen in the future. Mark that word – Nobody! Thus the successful trader does not base moves on what supposedly will happen but reacts instead to what does happen.

Source: amitrandive

This Week Nifty Future Trend Decider levels are 7775 & 7940
Nifty Future considers resistance at 7940
If breaks & closes above this level then a rally is expected upto 8005 & 8080 level
Although Chances are very remote!!
Suppose if comes higher level then can sell and hold with Stop of 7940!!
Nifty Future consider support at 7775
Once if starts trading below 7775 then more selling pressure will be expected
Down side supports are at 7685 & 7533

The fourth quarter earnings season is about to wind up to a close and, along with results, companies have also disclosed their latest shareholding structures.
Here's databases to scour for companies where foreign institutional investors continously increased their stakes for give quarters. A total of 44 such companies turned up on over screener, which we then ranked on the basis of results they have delivered since January last year. The data shows that of the 44 stocks, 32 stocks have given positive returns while only 12 stocks remained in red.
Below is the list of the seven stocks that have clocked over 100 percent returns over the period. The second table is a list of all the 44 stocks and tracks the increase in FII stake over the five quarters.

Leading stock exchange NSE today said it will introduce weekly options contracts on Bank Nifty index from May 27.

The decision comes after receiving approval from markets regulator Securities and Exchange Board of India (Sebi).

"The exchange is pleased to inform members that with reference to approval received from Sebi, Weekly Options contracts on Bank Nifty index shall be made available for trading in Future & Options segment with effect from May 27, 2016," National Stock Exchange said in a circular.

It said that Bank Nifty contracts will expire on the every Thursday of week. In case, Thursday is a trading holiday, the contracts will expire on the previous trading day.

"All contracts shall expire at the normal market closing time on the expiry day or such other time as decided by exchange," the bourse said.

A futures contract is a forward contract, which is traded on an exchange, while an option contract gives a person the right but not the obligation to buy or sell something.

An option is a contract between two parties wherein the buyer receives a privilege for which he pays a fee (premium) and the seller accepts an obligation for which he receives a fee.

Here's Circular

Free EOD Charts with Indicators

Time frame: we can divide Indian commodities market into 2 sessions, first from 10:00am to 6pm then second is after open international market from 6:00pm to end of the day. Most of the time from 10 am to 6pm, commodities market is range bound and after 6pm its show big reversal movement. After 6:30 pm, trading in commodities with small SL for big target is very useful.

News: News in commodities trading is very important. Commodity trading is based on international news because direction of trend can find by the international news and price only but this is always a headache for trader. There is a lot of news about commodities in international market, which is useful and which is not useful. Some time trader miss basic news also and some time he collect too much useless news from internet like he is not intraday trader but want to buy commodities for future requirement of his project in physical form so now hedging them. Most of commodities trader even earning good profit from it by intraday or positional trades also don’t know that why the commodity Exchange and how it works in real.  Just on business news channel at 10 am and 6pm, there you can find commodities news. There you can find all necessary news about commodities. Its more than enough for intraday trading.

Chart Setup and Read: Just open chart of commodity, there should be Price and Volume panel on chart. Apply ATP in the chart. ATP is most important factor in commodities. You can add pivot level also in it. Always watch volume part of chart.  Please don’t make your chart to drawing sheet by add a lot of indicators and draw straight, right, left, horizontal, vertical. Up, down 100-200 lines in chart name of so called xyz strategy and analysis then you can’t see proper price also.

Find the opportunity for LONG and SHORT: Always LONG the strong commodities and SHORT the weak commodities.

Strong Commodity:
Buyers are more than Sellers
Percentage change is more than +0.5%
Sustain above the ATP
Any positive breakout at Historical chart can also confirm.
Weak Commodity:
Sellers are more than Buyers.
Percentage change is more than -0.5%
Sustain below the ATP
Any Negative breakout at Historical chart can also confirm.

Trading Methods:

ATP Respect: ATP plays a major role in commodity trading. ATP works as a support and resistance level for commodity. If any commodity is strong then ATP works as a support level for it. When it’s come to near ATP then most possible it will respect the ATP and will start raise from here. You can buy it near ATP and just put the SL slightly below the ATP. So your SL will small and Target will be big.
Similarly with weak commodity, ATP works as a resistance for weak commodity. When it’s come to near ATP then most possible it will fail to break ATP level and again start down side. So you can short it near ATP level and put SL just slightly above the ATP. So your SL will small in respect to target.

ATP Crossover: When a reversal come in market and commodity break the ATP as support or resistance level then it’s known as ATP crossover. When any commodity cross the ATP then most possible it will show any big movement. If any strong commodity show reversal and break the ATP as support then you can sell it when its break the ATP level and put the SL slightly above the ATP. So your SL will small and Target will be big.
Similarly, if any weak commodity show reversal and break the ATP as resistance then you can buy it above the ATP level and put SL slightly below the ATP. So your SL will small and Target will be big.

Cage Strategy: Cage strategy is most powerful in commodity trading. In cage strategy, kept open a Buy order above the high and Sell order below the low. When a commodity break the high or low level then most possible its make the new big high and low. When a order execute in the Cage strategy, Just place SL slightly below the previous high for buy order and slightly above the previous low for executed sell order. So your SL will small and Target will be big.
There are some tricks that you can use for make more winning chance in above methods but you should some practice before apply it.

Double Stop Loss order: In this trick, we shall add double quantity in our SL order for above strategy. So when our SL will hit then with half quantity our open position will square off and with rest half quantity we can get profit and recover our loss what we made by SL hit.
Like if crude oil is strong and we bought 1 lot crude oil near the ATP with 2 Lot stop loss just slightly below the ATP. Suddenly crude oil shows the reversal and its break the ATP. We had 2 lot SL orders, so with 1 lot our buying position will square off and another 1 lot will short and it will start generate profit for us. Crude oil break the ATP so most possible it will show big movement because it’s broke the important ATP levels. So with this extra lot profit we can recover our loss what he made with SL hit. If there is any big downside then we can generate extra profit also after recover loss with SL hit one lot. For like this trick, you should have good practice.

Add Extra Lot near Stop Loss: In this trick, we add extra lot with same stop loss. Like we have bought 1 lot crude oil at 3250 with 3240 SL. If crude oil now starts to down side and its come near to our stop loss then we can add one more lot of crude oil at 3248 levels with same 3240 SL. If its hit stop loss then loss will be very small for extra add one lot but if its respect our SL level and its start to raise without hit our SL then we will have 2 lot and our avg. buying price will also reduce so our profit will more and we can get exit with profit. For like this trick, you should have good practice.

Hedging Technique:

There are some hedging technique also, its sound good in theoretical but practically it’s not good bet. I am just sharing with you.

Pair Hedging: In pair hedging, we buy strong commodity and sell weak commodity from the same sector or different sector at the same time. It’s on possibility that at least one will hit target but some time both hit SL then add brokerages and tax, it’s become more worst.

Same Commodity with different months: In this, we buy one month and sell next month same commodity same the time with very small SL. So if commodity raise or fall, we can get that movement. Its sound good as theoretically but in this surety that one side SL will hit, so after cut one side SL and both sides brokerages and taxes, there is very small profit remain that also if its show any big movement. If fail to show big movement then it can be in loss also. Some time both SL hit and big loss. So it should be avoid if you are not familiar like this technique.

This is all about intraday trading in commodities. What should you have to know about practically intraday trading in commodities is described here. You can read many books and join many online and offline courses about intraday trading in commodities, they will tell you round-round many things to impress but finally for earn profit in real practically intraday commodities trading, this one only possible methods. You should have good practice. You can practice at least one month with this and can see result. You will do many mistakes. No problem, mistakes are part of learning. You should identify that mistakes and remove them one by one. I can identify also what mistakes and problems you will face during this learning:

1. You can’t mange Stop Loss, some time your SL will very small so it will hit very early. Some time your SL will very big so after reversal trend start also it will take time to hit and you will loss big in SL hit.

2. You can’t determine target, some time you will book your profit very early. Some time your target will very high so it will reverse and hit your SL before hit your target even you were in profit at a time.
3. You can’t identify the reversal and you will trap in it and your SL will hit.

4. Near the ATP support or resistance, ATP crossover, cage strategy and some important levels and impulse buy and sell will generate, you will identify it wrongly and will trap in it and your SL will hit.

You should not worry about it. It’s all part of learning. You have to learn from it. After some practice you will get maturity and you can easily identify like this situation and can easily avoid like this mistakes. Then also a small probability will always there for mistakes and you should accept it with SL. You can paper trade or can trade with mini lots or not trade also; it’s all your choice. There is no force for learn.

 Mostly time commodities show big movement after 6:00 pm (after international market open) but menthe oil can show big movement in day time also. Nickel is a naught commodity; it can give surprise with sharp big movement either bull or bear side any time of day, so keep aware about it. Commodities show sharply big movement in one direction so doesn’t trade with commodities without stop loss.  Don’t keep SL in your mind always put your SL in terminal otherwise everything will remain in your mind and you will not able to do anything. 

1. If prices are in an uptrend and OI is rising, this is a bullish sign. The bulls
are in charge. They are adding to positions and making the money, thus
becoming more powerful. Shorts are also being stopped out, but new
sellers are taking their place. As the market continues to rise, the longs get
stronger and the shorts get weaker.

2. If prices are in a downtrend and OI is rising, this is a bearish sign. The bears
are in charge in this case. They are adding to their positions, and they are
the ones making the money. Weaker longs are being stopped out, but new
buyers are taking their place. As the market continues to fall, the shorts get
stronger and the longs get weaker. Another way to look at the first two
rules is that, as long as the OI is increasing in a major trend, it will have the
necessary financing to draw upon and prosper.

3. If prices are in an uptrend and OI is falling, this is a bearish sign. The old
longs, the smart money (I call them “smart money” because they have been
right to this point), are taking profits and liquidating. They are replaced by
some new buyers who will not be as strong on balance, but the declining
OI is an indication that the weak shorts are also bailing. They will be
replaced to some extent by new shorts that are stronger than the old shorts
were.

4. If prices are in a downtrend and OI is falling, this is a bullish sign—the
mirror image of Rule 3. The smart money, the shorts, are covering or
liquidating. They will be replaced to a degree by new shorts that are not as
strong as they were, but the declining OI indicates that the weakened longs
are largely throwing in the towel. They will be replaced by fresh longs that
were not as weakened by the lower prices. Another way to look at Rules 3
and 4 is that when the pool of losers is depleted, the party will be over.

5. If prices are in a congestion range and OI is rising, this is a bearish sign.
The reason is that the public generally plays the long side. Rising OI in a
trading range affair assumes that the commercials and professionals are
taking the short side, and the uniformed public will most likely lose out in
the end.

6. If prices are in a congestion range and OI is falling, this is a bullish sign.
The reason is that the professionals, who are more likely to be short, are
covering. The weak hands are throwing in the towel.

SBI (188.95)
Contrary to expectations, SBI fell last week, closing 5.5 per cent lower for the week. It made a high of ₹202.5 and fell sharply thereafter. Technically, the 50 per cent Fibonacci retracement resistance at ₹200 has been restricting the upside in this stock for more than a month. A strong break and a decisive close above this level can boost the bullish momentum . Immediate support is at ₹182, which is likely to limit the downside. A strong reversal from this support can take the stock higher to ₹203. A strong break above ₹203 can take SBI higher to ₹210 and ₹212 thereafter. Short-term traders can go long on a reversal from ₹182. Stop-loss can be kept at ₹177 for the target of ₹198. Revise the stop-loss higher to ₹185 if the stock moves up to ₹190. The short-term outlook will turn negative if it breaks and closes below ₹182 decisively. Such a break can drag it lower to ₹173.



ITC (₹324.8)
ITC fell to a low of ₹312 but managed to reverse higher and close flat for the week. Last week’s candle reflects indecisiveness in the market. The stock can continue to remain range-bound between the 21- and 100-week moving averages at ₹319 and ₹338, respectively. Within this range, chances are high for the stock to move towards ₹338 in the near term. A breakout on either side of ₹319 and ₹338 will decide the next leg of move. A strong break below ₹319 can drag itto ₹310 or even lower. On the other hand, a break above ₹338 can take it to ₹341 . Further break above ₹341 will pave the way for an upmove to the next targets of ₹355 and ₹360. Medium-term investors can continue to hold their long positions. Retain the stop-loss at ₹310 for the target of ₹357. Short-term investors with high risk appetite can go long on dips near ₹319 with a stop-loss at ₹310 for the target of ₹335.




Infosys (₹1,210.85)
Infosys is not gaining momentum for a fresh rally. The reversal from the intraweek low of ₹1,201 faced resistance at ₹1,242 and the stock lost steam. It is currently hovering above the 21-day moving average support which held well last week. But this support now looks vulnerable . The stock can fall to test the important support between ₹1,195 and ₹1,190. Inability to reverse higher from ₹1,190 will increase the danger of the fall extending to ₹1,170 or ₹1,165. The level of ₹1,165 is a crucial short-term support. Whether Infosys reverses higher or breaks below ₹1,165 will decide the next direction of move. On the other hand, if Infosys manages to reverse higher from ₹1,190 itself, then a rise to ₹1,240 is possible. A break above ₹1,240 can take it higher to ₹1,270. However, the bullish outlook will gain momentum only on a strong break above ₹1,270.



RIL (₹982.55)
RIL tumbled 5 per cent last week breaking below the psychological ₹1,000 level. The possibility of a rise to ₹1,100, reiterated in this column, has weakened after the 7.8 per cent fall over the past two weeks. This fall has turned the outlook negative for RIL. Key resistances are at ₹1,000 and ₹1,030, which can cap the upside in the near term. A fall to test the next support region between ₹960 and ₹950 looks likely. A strong break below ₹950 will increase the danger of the stock falling to ₹900 thereafter. Short-term traders can go short if the stock reverses lower from ₹1,000. Stop-loss can be placed at ₹1,025 for the target of ₹960. The strong fall in the last two weeks in RIL is very significant as it has increased the possibility of the long-term range-bound move between ₹800 and ₹1,100. The stock can fall to ₹900 or even lower in the coming weeks.



Tata Steel (₹350.55)
The uptrend in Tata Steel has paused, as was expected. The region between ₹360 and ₹363 is restricting the upside. A corrective fall to ₹340 and ₹334 cannot be ruled out while the stock trades below this resistance zone. If the stock breaks below ₹334, then the corrective fall can extend to ₹320 or even lower. On the other hand, if Tata Steel reverses higher from ₹334, it can revisit the ₹360-₹363 resistance zone. The 200-week moving average at ₹357 is a key level to watch. A strong weekly close above this level can be cue for resumption of the overall uptrend. A subsequent break above ₹363 will confirm the same and pave the way for the next target of ₹387. Investors with a medium-term perspective can make use of dips to go long near ₹340. Accumulate longs if the stock extends its fall below ₹335. Keep the stop-loss at ₹315 for the target of ₹385.